YHK - yet another hacker news clone

Trump's mistake is using the word to denote AI in general when it already had an established meaning.

Strange how this guy can be CEO of anything. All you hear management types ever blubber about is integrity ... Clearly there's a problem here.

What he says still doesn't map to my daily practice. I use Astra and Fable extensively and they need an incredible amount of guidance and harnessing to produce fairly simple systems. Any decent code is produced with tons of static tooling, agent files, harnessing, and even then, there are myriad mistakes. My main point of skepticism is whether software engineering is verifiable at all, once you factor in architecture, code design, let alone the human element in usability, requirements, etc.

As far as I'm concerned Dwarkesh could be prey of AI psychosis... I don't think a proxy metric like the average daily spend of AI researchers going up proves anything.

The technology has undoubtedly advanced but for me it's still a coin toss on whether we're in an exponential or an s-function.

Is the equivalent of ants trying to outsmart Google that wants to build a datacenter on their land. ASI will unfathomably outsmart the wealthy and intelligent humans like Stockfish 13 does Magnus Carlsen

But we've all seen robots fold clothes to do that sort of thinking easily. Oh maybe we need to hangout on ai twitter more.

Why? It is now easy to get a few motors to do that stuff for you. It is now easy to get whatever manufactured ... except for raw materials, and energy if you see that as separate.

Think about that again: if superintelligence exists the HUGE change is that money is now worthless and raw materials have all turned more valuable than their weight in pure gold. Steel, just raw ingots, will increase in price BY A FACTOR ONE MILLION, at minimum. At this point your dog probably sees the investment opportunity, no?

You would buy farms, mines, mining rights, water, energy (and not for DCs, actual energy sources), rivers, raw materials ... that sort of thing. A superintelligence is not going to be exempt from the means of production. Raw materials are monopolized in the present, so this would in fact be absolutely critical to your success.

So no, sorry. Obviously this cannot be how Amodei, Altman, Google, Meta, and others are seeing things: they're going after money, nothing else. So they are either stupid or they know 99%+ sure they do not have superintelligence.

In other words: AI is a bubble, a hype, according to the management of the big AI firms. It's a way to get people to give them money, not an actual path to superintelligence. Either that, or these people are idiots.