175 points lxm 9 hours ago 150 comments
fnord77 8 hours ago | parent
That's a great return for practically zero risk.
(If google defaults on bonds there's much bigger problems in the world than the loss of your capital)
conover 8 hours ago | parent
Imustaskforhelp 8 hours ago | parent
Yes, Google has a very small risk but still it is a non zero risk that google can bankrupt whereas US govt can physically not bankrupt itself given that it can print the money (there could only be some gridlock within raising the ceiling though but that's true)
Also I would argue that Google itself has changed with trillions of dollars spent into AI/Datacenters, it simply can't pivot as well. There is a reason as to why Google is having such high level of interest rate
Google isn't stupid and wants to give such high level of interests if not for the amount of risk involved. I dont believe that there's free lunch but also that perhaps this can be a good deal to some and this is gonna push people even more away from the more riskier neoclouds funding and cause their debts to rise in interests rate even more.
Esophagus4 8 hours ago | parent
His point was that Microsoft has an interest in maximizing its credit worthiness which necessitated the corporate governance etc, while the administration had an interest in maximizing… other stuff (?) which did not necessitate the same things.
[1] https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/why-microsoft-has-lowe...
stymaar 8 hours ago | parent
That being said, inflation is at 3.7% YoY and it's the real rate that maters, not the nominal one.
ion_trapper 8 hours ago | parent
maerF0x0 8 hours ago | parent
panicinducer 7 hours ago | parent
maerF0x0 7 hours ago | parent
neural_thing 7 hours ago | parent
umeshunni 7 hours ago | parent
andsoitis 6 hours ago | parent
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2017/06/24/i...
jurgenburgen 3 hours ago | parent
igleria 1 hour ago | parent
aurareturn 5 hours ago | parent
brunoTbear 5 hours ago | parent
aurareturn 5 hours ago | parent
Total human search volume has likely already started to decline.
Further more, we are at a point where searching in ChatGPT or AI apps is simply better and faster than Google.
In this new world, Google is not the leader nor a monopoly.
slopinthebag 2 hours ago | parent
source?
aurareturn 1 hour ago | parent
Because Google doesn’t break down search volume, we don’t know for sure.
slopinthebag 19 minutes ago | parent
aurareturn 9 minutes ago | parent
1. Humans are searching less on Google.
2. Humans get the answer from Google AI answers at the top, which means AI is better at finding what the human wanted than traditional Google search results.
Both are bad for Google.
jesterson 5 hours ago | parent
chrismorgan 2 hours ago | parent
Come, come: most email is Google, most phones are Google, most web browsers are Google. If you measured the global impact of any single company going under (with nothing else inherently changing), I wonder if Google might be #1.
jesterson 2 hours ago | parent
Compare this with HSBC going under or say JPMorgan. Or Adyen. Or amazon (screw their retail business - it would be much better for everyone if they die, but unfortunately a lot of companies still build their IT on AWS).
dwattttt 2 hours ago | parent
chrismorgan 1 hour ago | parent
But the others you name: not a chance, big businesses already diversify such services. They don’t partner with one bank or one payment provider only.
throwaway2037 2 hours ago | parent
GOOGL 2.050% 15Aug2050 Corp
Current Bid/Ask yield: 6.134/6.045
That bond has 24 years to maturity. If you look at US Treasury bond yields with about 25 years to maturity, the current yield is about 5.29%. That means the spread is less than 100bps. That is pretty small. Google (Alphabet) still has an excellent credit rating: AA+.
Havoc 1 hour ago | parent
Refreeze5224 8 hours ago | parent
bix6 8 hours ago | parent
water-drummer 8 hours ago | parent
ipsum2 8 hours ago | parent
CoolestBeans 8 hours ago | parent
Hamuko 6 hours ago | parent
reverius42 6 hours ago | parent
overfeed 4 hours ago | parent
Anyone that can open their computer to install an SSD, or a consumer-grade GPU, can install a data center GPU with a fan-kit; it's not rocket science.
Hamuko 4 hours ago | parent
I've also seen someone sell their old fanless Nvidia cards on the local marketplace. There are definitely consumers running these things in their basements.
latentsea 7 hours ago | parent
dgellow 4 hours ago | parent
jeffbee 8 hours ago | parent
danielodievich 8 hours ago | parent
maerF0x0 8 hours ago | parent
- No one has available tokens/gpus/datacenter for sale at any price
- No one will lend people money to build it
fhruwbfbrb 8 hours ago | parent
wmf 7 hours ago | parent
otherme123 6 hours ago | parent
aurareturn 5 hours ago | parent
fhruwbfbrb 4 hours ago | parent
aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent
fhruwbfbrb 4 hours ago | parent
Edit: And Anthropic was never a specific point of discussion until you brought it up.
UpsideDownRide 1 hour ago | parent
You can use Newton for most stuff and get pretty good answers. Micro is questionable in all kinds of ways. Assumptions about actors, assumptions about responses, assumptions about how utility maps onto monetary value. It's a huge mess really.
preommr 7 hours ago | parent
The money is there but not at the risk levels these companies have pushed things to. They're spending billions like it's candy, and treating millions like change they found in their couch cushions.
Financial systems are usually in the hands of people that have some risk management. When these labs say things like this will change everything, there's no way to know how to evaluate any of this.
KingMachiavelli 7 hours ago | parent
But the cost to add more power capacity is huge and highly variable. Just because oil is expensive today doesn’t mean the capex to pump more is justified.
Really what AI needs is large customers that will commit to large spend over the next 5-10 years. Without this AI companies are basically offering duration arbitrage of electricity. Not a good place to be; the finances will always look bad.
Unfortunately, the amount of capital required by the entire AI industry is enough that counterparty risk is now a concern.
noosphr 6 hours ago | parent
Everyone is using more and more tokens, everyone is complaining that providers lobotomize flag ship models because they don't have the capacity to serve everyone.
Then they turn around and compare it to the dark fiber bust or railways or whatever when in each of those the issue was the capacity being build that no one used.
It's been 2 years since I could buy a gpu for love or money. It's been one for ram.
My old rig is worth ~two~ three[0] times what I paid for it inflation adjusted.
[0] fuck me ram is rising again.
incrudible 6 hours ago | parent
We just don't know the true value of tokens until those subsidies stop, and the subsidies don't stop because the respective companies don't want to know, at least until everyone cashed out. The valuations of AI companies are very difficult to reconcile with current revenue (which doesn't cover cost) and with a sober mind it's hard to imagine where all this additional revenue is going to come from, down the line. And that's not to say the the technology isn't fundamentally transformative and revolutionary. So was the internet, but it still created an investment bubble.
The RAM prices are in yet another pork cycle, which will be exacerbated by the fact that many previous pork cycles left RAM manufacturers with excess capacity and rock-bottom prices, so they're much more careful investing and more assertive negotiating contracts now.
noosphr 5 hours ago | parent
incrudible 33 minutes ago | parent
aurareturn 5 hours ago | parent
slopinthebag 2 hours ago | parent
noosphr 1 hour ago | parent
lovich 57 minutes ago | parent
These models become obsolete in months. Until the labs prove that they can produce a model that has a positive return on investment in it, it’s insane to think that the labs are in a long term good position.
incrudible 42 minutes ago | parent
Semianalysis estimates that subscriptions make up 40% of tokens generated for only the 10% of the revenue:
https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-subscription...
I'm also not saying that this subsidy is irrational, it does buy mindshare, but it still distorts the true demand for tokens. I wouldn't be using anywhere near as many tokens if the price was as high as the API costs, if anything I would switch to a cheaper model, and likely not an Anthropic one.
If you're gonna point to gross margins on the API, those 85% really are meaningless in isolation. They can charge top dollar because they have one of the top models, but only because they keep spending top dollar on training it, as does OpenAI. It's a game of chicken where whoever stops heavy training investments first is likely the one to lose market share to whoever keeps spending. So the play is to try and keep the investment capital flowing and be the last one standing, which only works if you can keep selling a fantasy of future revenue, not the dire reality of current revenue.
slopinthebag 17 minutes ago | parent
UpsideDownRide 1 hour ago | parent
belZaah 6 hours ago | parent
aurareturn 6 hours ago | parent
Further more, their compute commitments are over 10-20 years. Their average quarterly compute commitment is only about $11B - $15B which they have already surpassed with their revenue.
At $230b/year, they’d be at around $57b in quarterly revenue against compute of around $16b. This is not bleeding cash.
Why do you say they're running out of cash? Can we see your math?
byzantinegene 6 hours ago | parent
aurareturn 6 hours ago | parent
Let's say it's 15 years. That's $16B/quarter in commitment. They had $17B in revenue in Q3 2026.
If anything, they're far too conservative.
otherme123 6 hours ago | parent
If VC money gets tight, they would have to issue debt, that pay interests. With a current negative EBITDA, their bond will be junk at IPO, paying higher interests and having a lot less market than AAA debt (e.g. Google has access to that market). Both things combined translate to "running out of cash".
aurareturn 5 hours ago | parent
Their S1 is public. We have AI. Are people this lazy? Throw it into ChatGPT and ask it to confirm the numbers.
ViewTrick1002 5 hours ago | parent
otherme123 4 hours ago | parent
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026...
Income at page F-7 (about 350 overall):
(units in Kilo-millions)
Revenue in first 2026 9-months 33.2
Compute and infra expenses 18.8
Personel 4.8
Sales 5.5
Administrative expenses 5.3
Operating earnings (loss) (1.2)
Q-3 only, this is calculated substracting first half from 9 first months:
Revenue in Q3 16.9
Compute and infra expenses 9.9
Personel 1.7
Sales 2.3
Administrative expenses 3.6
Operating earnings (loss (0.6)
ElProlactin 4 hours ago | parent
It's not exactly laziness. It's that most people don't understand basic financial concepts like fixed versus operating costs.
Companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have invested huge sums in building/training models. Those are the headline numbers everyone talks about. What they don't understand is that the gross profit margins on AI model inference are very high.
The question is whether these companies ever get to the point where the profit from inference justifies (recoups) the investment made in training. If they have to keep investing vast sums in training new models, and/or competition causes the margins on inference to collapse, they're in trouble. But if training becomes less costly and inference margins don't compress too much, it's a totally different story.
otherme123 3 hours ago | parent
Can we be sure of this? The second they tried to hike the prices to be profitable, they lost a lot of clients, or a lot of clients lowered they token expenditure. In any market margins tend to go to zero. I am using frontier models, but only because they are dirty cheap if not free. If they raise the price, I just switch to a cheaper model, start exploring the option of renting a GPU-VPS or buying my own card. Or reducing my AI usage, that currently includes stupid useless things like "translate this cooking recipe from french... for free".
> But if training becomes less costly and inference margins don't compress too much, it's a totally different story.
They are being priced as the "ifs" are certainties, and not only a possibility. If anything goes a millimetre below perfect for them, their finances collapse. High margins attract competitors, and unless you have a huge moat (and their only moat is expensive training), your high margins vanish.
grey-area 3 hours ago | parent
1. Model Build/Training costs are escalating if anything
2. They are in an arms race with competitors and can't afford to stop building new models - if they lose the perception of leading, they lose lots of customers overnight.
3. Inference margin is under attack from more specialised models and open weights models.*
4. They have no moat given how simple the interface to the products is - a bunch of text files and text prompts, and little prospect of building a moat.
So those all run counter the possibility of coasting on previous research. To me the most promising avenue for making money for these companies is to replace Google, not AGI or taking over the world's knowledge work. That would mean they are overvalued. Even coasting on previous research, how long would it take to pay off the money they have spent?
* https://strandsagents.com/blog/amazon-saves-millions-replaci...
surgical_fire 3 hours ago | parent
> Companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have invested huge sums in building/training models. Those are the headline numbers everyone talks about. What they don't understand is that the gross profit margins on AI model inference are very high.
Only when you ignore that the models they provide inference for have an extremely high cost and pretend they don't depreciate. They keep having to train new models. I don't think they recovered the cost for a model when a new one releases.
It is kind of cute to say other people "don't understand basic financial concepts like fixed versus operating costs" when you seem to not understand basic financial concepts such as depreciation and amortization.
Also, and this is important, we don't really know their true compute cost. We don't know if their compute with the likes of Google and Amazon were initially subsidized, and for how long it might be. In Q2 they also got to not pay SpaceX for compute for a while.
ElProlactin 2 hours ago | parent
Gross margin is revenue minus cost of revenue (COGS). COGS is basically the compute that serves inference (rented capacity, or depreciation on owned GPUs used for inference, plus expenses like support, etc.).
Model training is normally treated as R&D. Under US GAAP, R&D is expensed as it occurs and is below gross profit as an operating expense. It is not COGS.
You mention "depreciation" but depreciation applies to physical assets like GPUs. The GPU depreciation that belongs in gross margin is already in COGS. A trained model would be an intangible asset, so that is amortization, not depreciation. Even that only applies if the training cost was capitalized, and under GAAP it generally wouldn't be. The full cost is expensed when it's incurred. Nobody is "pretending models don't depreciate." Their cost is counted all at once but not in gross margin because that's simply not what gross margin measures.
Obviously, models lose value fast in an economic sense. They get replaced within a year or two and competition limits what they can earn. But that's an argument about whether the R&D expense is sustainable. It doesn't mean that gross margins are being misstated.
"Inference has high gross margins" and "training is extremely expensive" can both be true, which oddly seems to be something many people have trouble comprehending. But this is the crux of the questions that will determine whether these businesses are viable long-term:
1. Will training costs fall over time, or at least grow more slowly than revenue?
2. Does the gross profit a model earns from inference before it's replaced exceed what it cost to train?
3. Will inference margins hold up as competition and open-weight models push prices down?
You have a legitimate point about compute costs. If the deals with Google, Amazon or anyone else are priced below market, that directly inflates gross margin, because it lowers COGS. But we don't know those terms, so that's just speculation, and it's still a different argument from depreciation.
To reiterate what I wrote:
> The question is whether these companies ever get to the point where the profit from inference justifies (recoups) the investment made in training. If they have to keep investing vast sums in training new models, and/or competition causes the margins on inference to collapse, they're in trouble. But if training becomes less costly and inference margins don't compress too much, it's a totally different story.
surgical_fire 1 hour ago | parent
They are when they say that inference is incredibly profitable. Its incredible profits exist only when you pretend that models have 0 cost to be created (since they are a digital asset that can't depreciate), and R&D is a imaginary thing that exists only as a fixed cost of doing business that doesn't need to be recovered.
Anthropic released Opus 4.6 in February 2026 and deprecated it in June 2026. Was it anywhere close to recover the "R&D" costs during those few months?
More importantly, how long a model needs to be current until it recovers "R&D"? Their economic viability hangs on this, and the compute costs both to train and servr models.
A lot of people like to vaguely gesture at the possibility of compute costs coming down, but it is in fact coming up with the rising cost of hardware (and possibly with sweetheart compute deals being replaced by contacts where providers actually have to make money).
ElProlactin 35 minutes ago | parent
Expensing the cost of training a model isn't treating it as free. The whole cost is charged to the income statement the year it's incurred, which is actually faster than depreciation would ever recognize it. Calling something R&D does not make the cost "imaginary". It means the cost is counted. It's just not in gross margin.
We are actually asking the same basic question (can the investment made ever be recouped?). What you're struggling with is the accounting concepts and terminology. The costs of creating the models are a different part of the income statement than the costs of serving inference.
Again, "inference has high gross margins" and "training is extremely expensive" can both be true at the same time.
In absolutely none of my comments did I state that R&D never needs to be recovered. In fact, I stated repeatedly that the entire crux of whether these businesses are viable long-term comes down to whether the costs of creating the models is eventually recouped.
> Anthropic released Opus 4.6 in February 2026 and deprecated it in June 2026.
First off, Opus 4.6 is still available, even though Anthropic recommends migrating to 5.5. Google Cloud says it will be on offer until February 2027. So revenue for this model didn't drop to $0 overnight.
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/models/opus-4-6/overview
More importantly, your comment implies that models cease to have value when the next version is released. This completely ignores the reality of model training, which is that the subsequent models almost certainly built on the research, data and techniques of 4.6. And 4.6 was built on the research, data and techniques of the models that came before it.
So the whole notion that point versions of these models are standalone investments that cost billions to train and then become worthless the minute a new point version is released is incredibly naive. It's just not how model training works.
> A lot of people like to vaguely gesture at the possibility of compute costs coming down, but it is in fact coming up with the rising cost of hardware (and possibly with sweetheart compute deals being replaced by contacts where providers actually have to make money).
You have absolutely no evidence of "sweetheart compute deals" so this is pure speculation.
Furthermore, there's a flaw in your logic. It's entirely possible for chips and memory to get more expensive while the cost per token served falls due to more efficient hardware and better inference software. What matters here is the cost per unit of output, not the price of a GPU.
Bottom line: inference has high gross margins and these businesses have had to invest massive sums. If inference profits grow sufficiently faster than costs, or costs decrease sufficiently over time, these businesses could be viable and perhaps incredibly successful. If that doesn't happen, their viability is questionable.
Lots of people have an opinion about this but as this discussion proves, lots of people also don't understand the basic accounting required to make a cogent argument one way or the other.
szvsw 59 minutes ago | parent
Isn’t it plausible that this is conceptually wrong? What if a model’s revenue-generating potential only lasts for something like a year due to, loosely speaking, competition? Doesn’t this make model development more akin to, say, the costs of annual agricultural planting/harvesting/delivery cycles, or a tv network’s annual (back in the day at least…) production cycle for its main content?
ElProlactin 19 minutes ago | parent
Under US GAAP, production costs are capitalized when they're incurred and then amortized into cost of revenue over the period when the content actually earns revenue. Because content usually earns more revenue early and then tapers off, the amortization is usually front-loaded.
The one problem with this is that not all training actually goes into what's sold to customers. There are experiments, failed runs, various studies, etc. So you would need to come up with a way to cost only the final production run (and perhaps post-training) to come up with a number akin to content cost.
ASC 730 basically favors expensing anything uncertain, so unless you have a really good, defensible way of breaking out these costs and separating them, doing it this way would go against the current accounting standards.
KaiserPro 2 hours ago | parent
the gross margins on growing potatoes is very high, if you exclude all the other costs needed to get the potatoes to market.
Think about it, you take some potatoes you had left over from last yeah, dump them in the ground and wait 9 months. Boom pure profit.
This of course excludes the cost of the land, machinery needed to plant, till and harvest, storage, pesticide, fungicide and herbicide.
Then the transport, cleaning and packaging.
If you arbitrarily cut out all the bits of the business needed to make revenue, everything is a profit.
ordu 59 minutes ago | parent
ElProlactin 28 minutes ago | parent
A company selling potatoes would not include land in COGS. Land is a a fixed asset. Even if a farm rented/leased the land, the payments would fall under OpEx, not COGS.
Seeds, pesticide/fungicide/herbicide, direct labor, water and electricity for irrigation, etc. would all be COGS.
Would it make sense to spend $1 billion on land to grow $1 million worth of potatoes every year? Probably not. But that doesn't mean you couldn't sell potatoes on your $1 billion land at a positive gross margin if revenue exceeded COGS.
This is the AI debate that is impossible to have when people refuse to educate themselves about basic financial accounting concepts.
lovich 1 hour ago | parent
No man. It’s that, like you’ve explained further in your comment, they haven’t become net profitable yet. Being profitable in 1-2 quarters is a good trend but it doesn’t matter if you are still behind on mountains of debt or investors wanting their money back and your market is one where people talk about shit that happened 4 months ago as obsolete.
There is no proof that the current profit they are making on inference is durable.
Ygg2 3 hours ago | parent
Their S1 was taken down. As of today (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-euro...) This is the second time they changed it.
Apparently they file it with Claude.
skew-aberration 5 hours ago | parent
aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent
skew-aberration 4 hours ago | parent
IMHO profitability will be worse though. They will contain to take on more and more investments - training, R&D, and 'sales and marketing' for enterprise share. They will face more competition than ever before. The range and types of models will continue to diversify, with real-time models for robotics and computer use paving the way for new entrants.
The investor confidence to back this doubling down will be spurred by rapid progress, panic deregulation while old-guard corporate democrats still hold power in the US, and much stricter sanctions against Chinese competitors, their models, and their eventual domestic hardware. The tech world will look a lot more factional by that point, with pseudo mergers & acquisitions amongst the big companies beginning, unabated by a toothless FTC. Anthropic will probably get closer to Amazon, and we could see big moves amongst Meta, Microsoft, and/or Google too.
Ultimately, Anthropic and OpenAI will maintain their market leading positions through at least 2028/2029 but only after a protracted period of significant equity dilution due to the expensive acquisitions and large outside investments which will be necessary in these market conditions.
Chinese hardware and models will look like a serious threat by the end of 2027 but will be largely locked out of US/Western markets. At the point the equation will have changed drastically - credit issues in the West led by mortgage security collapses will shape the investment environment and 2028 election, and rapid developments in physical technology and manufacturing will take the spotlight away from intelligence itself.
aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent
Looking at their 2027 compute commitments, it looks like around $72B total.
So I don't understand where this "burning cash" claim comes from by a few people here.
skew-aberration 3 hours ago | parent
People lack the accounting know-how to talk about it correctly. But compute for inference is just not the main expense right now.
If they take on more funding for training and/or build out, then they have to share the profits with more people. The growing revenue is shared by more people. As more options vest, they have to share with more people. If they need to acquire external companies for particular capabilities, profit is shared. If they have to pay hand over fist for hyperscaler compute in 2027 - more profit shared.
So as their revenue grows rapidly, the fraction of that revenue which they've promised to other people is growing too - case in point, they operated at an $80B loss on paper this year because the unrealized future-profits promised to early investors is so valuable relative to current revenues. If they have to make more such deals to continue investment (e.g a low IPO price which require shelling even more shares to stay competitive), then they will continue to create vast value but less of that value will be captured by the current investors (the 'burning cash' may go to compute providers, outside investors, as discounts to enterprise and consumers, etc instead of to Anthropic).
mkesper 1 hour ago | parent
revolvingthrow 4 hours ago | parent
Growing 70b revenue to 700b revenue is, ah, a smidge tougher. Even getting $70b to $230b would be an immense success, methinks. The initial hypecycle seems to have cooled down slightly, and people are no longer ranked by how many tokens they can burn through with no real deliverables expected. There's even reports that companies are starting to tighten their belts when it comes to token spend; a catastrophe for fat US labs that need those big-wallet companies to spend API prices which pays for everything. Subscriptions might make them some money but it's not where the real profit is.
Which isn't to say that the revenue won't grow, or even that it'll contract, but I certainly don't see Anth growing to eye-watering $700b next year, especially as long as open-weights models keep getting released and a BigCo can't get Opus deployed to their own hardware sitting in their basement with no chance of the secret sauce leaking out to anybody, including Anthropic.
surgical_fire 3 hours ago | parent
Anthropic operates at a loss. They lose money.
That is what they keep having to raise money and are desperate to IPO as soon as possible.
> Why do you say they're running out of cash? Can we see your math?
My brother in Christ, you can't tell the difference between revenue and profit, and think that just because their revenue (not profits) grew 10x that they can grow now a "measly" 3x.
They might have enough money (ot whatever they consider to be equivalent) in hand to keep being unprofitable for a bit, but they alao have something in between half a trillion and a trillion of contracts for compute in the next few years.
vasco 5 hours ago | parent
jurgenburgen 4 hours ago | parent
aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent
So yeah, I am pretty sure that if that's the sentiment from software people at the major-major financial company, Coreweave is cooked.
So there seems to be a huge mismatch: demand hasn't waned, but the narrative around AI has changed in the last month.
otabdeveloper4 4 hours ago | parent
But also hoarding hardware in glorified warehouses is not the genius business idea everyone thinks it is.
tourmalinetaco 4 hours ago | parent
aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent
I don't think they're buying GPUs outright to store in a warehouse.
dist-epoch 3 hours ago | parent
So whoever hoarded it in warehouses could sell it now immediately for at least 100% profit.
They seem like geniuses to me now, worst case they make 100% profit on the investment.
ahartmetz 2 hours ago | parent
blackenedgem 37 minutes ago | parent
cm2187 2 hours ago | parent
To give you an idea of the scale. US has currently about 50 GW of DC online. Depending on the source, you are looking at between 60 GW and 400 GW of new DC currently planned. For reference the total dependable capacity of the US grid is around 1000 GW.
I think there is a scenario where compute cost sky rockets while chip prices crash, as they end up unused in warehouse because of the lack of power and DC capacity.
cyanydeez 1 hour ago | parent
You want them to embrace a tech that exacerbates inequality and its founders promote that?
motionlessveloc 1 hour ago | parent
MrBuddyCasino 57 minutes ago | parent
By that logic we should ban books. This is Boko Haram ideology and you are just a communist who thinks he should be protected from competition.
Instead of “making everyone well off“ here is what will actually happen, because that’s what happens every time communists seize power: everyone will get poorer, because they will be outcompeted by more sane jurisdictions, eg China.
Communists never waste a second on how wealth is actually created. To them, money just exists and the main problem is that isn't distributed evenly.
smallmancontrov 9 minutes ago | parent
Chinese Communist Party, guide us to Capitalism?
If the communists can learn how to use markets, capitalists can learn how to redistribute. It's not impossible, we did it 100 years ago last time capitalism drunk-drove the world economy into a ditch, I just hope we can do it without a Great Depression and World War this time.
hdgvhicv 1 hour ago | parent
eeasss 42 minutes ago | parent
holysoles 8 hours ago | parent
Coreweave doesnt seem to be in a winner-take-all sector, they have a narrow moat and will have high ongoing capex. I struggle to see how they dont go under eventually even with the ability to restructure debt
adventured 6 hours ago | parent
[Sept 2001] https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2001-sep-27-fi-50296...
"Exodus Communications Inc., which never made a profit since it went public in March 1998, filed for bankruptcy protection after losing customers in the collapsing Internet economy."
"Exodus, which runs 44 Internet data centers on four continents, listed $5.98 billion in assets and $4.44 billion in debts in Chapter 11 papers filed Wednesday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware. The company operates so-called server farms that provide Web site services for businesses."
"The Santa Clara, Calif.-based company’s losses increased more than tenfold in the second quarter, and it fired workers as it failed to win new contracts fast enough to replace those it lost. Exodus counted Yahoo Inc. and AMR Corp.’s American Airlines among its customers."
"Trading in Exodus shares was halted before the markets opened Wednesday. The shares fell 33 cents to 17 cents Tuesday and have plunged 99% from a record $89.81 in March 2000."
"Analysts say Exodus, with eight different junk bond offerings totaling about $3.4 billion, ran up more debt than it could handle."
“We sacrificed profitability in exchange for growth and market share, over-expanding in some areas in advance of demand, not anticipating the decline as the dot-com bubble burst and the economy weakened,” Krause said.
"Exodus’ second-quarter loss grew on acquisition and restructuring costs to $583.4 million, or $1.05 a share, from $51.8 million, or 13 cents, a year earlier. Sales rose 79% to $318.7 million but missed analyst estimates. The company lost $256 million on sales of $818.4 million in 2000."
throwaway2037 2 hours ago | parent
You can see precise details about the CoreWeave bond issue here: https://bondblox.com/bond-market/Coreweave-Inc-USU2069EAE06
blitzar 29 minutes ago | parent
trescenzi 8 hours ago | parent
alsdkgjhgd 7 hours ago | parent
reverius42 5 hours ago | parent
otterley 4 hours ago | parent
Ekaros 4 hours ago | parent
Still, this means that people would only be willing to loan new money to them at that 16% rate.
Alien1Being 7 hours ago | parent
treebeard901 7 hours ago | parent
dragontamer 5 hours ago | parent
cmiles8 4 hours ago | parent
Meanwhile the traditional VC path is also drying up with OpenAI struggling with its latest round.
It’s going to get very ugly for the AI bros as cash starts to run out.
aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent
Fordec 4 hours ago | parent
I think we're going to find who was swimming the most naked by February at the rate this is going. Particularly the dedicated Neoclouds who had to fund by pure debt without alternate revenue streams. The problem is not the tech, it's the money.
Animats 4 hours ago | parent
Where is this bond in the bankruptcy hierarchy? Is it secured by anything? GPUs, maybe. Is it subordinated behind other debt? That's probably going to matter.
laylower 4 hours ago | parent
Just checked and coreweave rated at bb-