19 points nuwandavek 2 hours ago 8 comments
I've heard so much about how prediction markets are the guiding light in this dark world. But when put head to head against polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model, they are really a wash. Especially looking at flipped or close-by-polls races, there is no alpha compared to a traditional poll-based model. Was this obvious to everyone else too? Can we treat them like the entertainment they are and tax them for the terrible ads?
shizcakes 58 minutes ago | parent
What’s with the mouse cursors? I can barely read this on mobile because it’s covered with “guest” pointers
1e1a 31 minutes ago | parent
I think it would be less distracting if they updated at a reasonable rate. If the pointer events were serialized using a small binary format, the update rate could be raised dramatically with minimal bandwidth increase over the current implementation.
woggy 35 minutes ago | parent
Unreadable
closetkantian 33 minutes ago | parent
I agree this is unreadable
Grimburger 11 minutes ago | parent
Seems like someone is trolling hn, holy moly that web design
Shank 10 minutes ago | parent
I really think the main factor in determining if prediction markets are valuable is their predictions from outside election day. Once the “blue tsunami” was “expected” most of the markets shot overwhelmingly in one direction as the night wrapped up. You need to have a boundary for comparison that isn’t influenced by election night. Starting at 5AM is a decent cut point but I would argue the final poll date is the best comparison.
Love or hate PolyMarket, it should be on this list too.