74 points theanonymousone 2 hours ago 130 comments

OuterVale 1 hour ago | parent

As obvious as it seems to say, with no new juniors there will be no new seniors.

bananaflag 1 hour ago | parent

As obvious as it seems to say, if AI becomes smarter than humans in 3 years, this will not be the problem.

tomlockwood 1 hour ago | parent

The parent comment didn't require a load-bearing "if".

gottfired 1 hour ago | parent

A Company with only C level executives.

Applejinx 1 hour ago | parent

Isn't there a Golgafrincham Ark for that?

mr_toad 1 hour ago | parent

Even they can be replaced. They probably won’t even be last to go.

tancop 39 minutes ago | parent

C-suite are there to protect the owners so they don't get in trouble if their company breaks the law. That makes them the most important position. Being a good manager is just a bonus.

sebzim4500 1 hour ago | parent

They probably assume they won't need seniors either by the time that's a problem

martijnvds 1 hour ago | parent

"Roads? Where we're going, we don't need roads!"

alex_suzuki 1 hour ago | parent

Thanks for reminding me to rewatch Event Horizon for the N-th time.

omnicognate 1 hour ago | parent

Not Back to the Future? In Event Horizon they weren't going to need eyes to see. Whatever, I'm going to rewatch both!

rzzzt 28 minutes ago | parent

If we can believe Zager and Evans, it's the year 4545 when the need for eyes dwindles.

girvo 1 hour ago | parent

They are pretty up front about that when they hire from what I was told by someone who went through it: that you have to “be okay” with your job not exisiting in the next couple of years

rwmj 1 hour ago | parent

If they said that to me I'd assume they mean because the company will run out of cash and collapse.

dist-epoch 40 minutes ago | parent

That too

> Anthropic reportedly screens job candidates with a culture interview testing whether they would put the company's mission ahead of their future wealth. One applicant was asked how they would feel if a safety decision sent Anthropic's stock to zero.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/anthropic-...

skybrian 32 minutes ago | parent

Automating away the tedious parts of your work is something sysadmins and programmers have been doing for a long time. For example see:

https://sre.google/sre-book/eliminating-toil/

nswizzle31 42 minutes ago | parent

The future seniors won’t be people defined by strong technical knowledge. They’ll be the ones with “autonomy and judgment” as Anthropic puts it (read: highly social; good at climbing the corporate ladder; strong educational/professional pedigree).

These people won’t necessarily need to be trained in CS, because in 10 years no one will need to know what a data structure is. So they can come from other fields (law, business) or just from other roles within the company.

Note this is basically how it already works in every non-technical field where there’s no clear definable “skill” on which to evaluate people.

rsfern 27 minutes ago | parent

How does one develop strong judgement without strong technical knowledge?

nswizzle31 12 minutes ago | parent

Via lived experience and social connections. Having done something similar or being able to ask someone who has.

The point is that judgment won’t be needed on technical aspects. It will be more soft decisions like how to manage the agents.

dist-epoch 42 minutes ago | parent

If that will ever be a problem (it will not), they have enough money and clout to take seniors from other companies.

skybrian 30 minutes ago | parent

This doesn’t seem like a real problem for companies since they could start up internship programs if they need to.

q3k 1 hour ago | parent

It's 2026 and people still believe in measuring productivity by lines of code^W^W^Wnumber of commits? Amazing.

Two vibecoders are walking down a forest path.

One of them spots a Zig codebase and challenges the other: “I'll give you $100 to convert this codebase to Rust!”. They accept and after spending $1000 worth of tokens on a thousand commits the codebase is now in Rust.

On the way back, the second vibecoder spots the same codebase again, and challenges back: “I'll give you $100 to convert this codebase to Zig!”. Another gajillion tokens later, the codebase is now in Zig.

Walking a little more, one vibecoder (in a moment of unusual clarity) asks the other: “It feels like we just did this for nothing”. “No”, the other responds, ”we just increased our company productivity by two thousand commits per day!”.

mono442 1 hour ago | parent

I think you're right in your comparison and that's way we'll soon see mass layoffs of software engineers. Software can now be produced with less people than before but I don't think there's market for more software.

mr_toad 1 hour ago | parent

Historically, more efficient technology has led to a greater demand. It began with more efficient steam engines that required less coal for the same amount of work. That didn’t lead to a reduction in demand for coal, instead the acceleration in demand for coal changed the world.

However you measure it, in LOC or in MB or in ops per second, demand for more software always seems insatiable. This trend will likely continue up until software can be produced with zero humans at all. But I can’t see that happening unless we invent actual real artificial intelligence.

mono442 1 hour ago | parent

A counterexample that I can think of is agriculture. In the past almost everybody worked in it, now there are barely any farmers (relative to the overall population) producing much more food than before.

rakejake 1 hour ago | parent

Where I work, PR counts are a major metric come perf reviews. Surprise, surprise every team has a pointless migration going on. The number of promotions though...

cannonpalms 57 minutes ago | parent

Ah, the classic economists and GDP joke.

pera 1 hour ago | parent

At some point AI labs will start benchmarking their latest models by the number of humans they still have working in their companies.

cloche 1 hour ago | parent

I've wondering if a potential leading indicator for AGI could be a large drop off in open positions from a frontier lab.

pera 1 hour ago | parent

Yeah I think it is the main indicator for many people, including myself.

Obviously it would need to be sustained for a reasonable amount of time while also showing at least stable finances.

jansport123 1 hour ago | parent

no, i'd be more convinced if positions drop for tier 4 companies where everything is a mess. Companies like Anthropic have every incentive to build their system around AI accessibility and understanding.

dist-epoch 33 minutes ago | parent

Because of fears of AI, and people watching these indicators as hawks, the exact opposite will happen, they will try delaying this as much as possible to delay the backlash until it's too late.

Elon already stopped talking about job loses and doom, and tries to talk only about the positive.

Jackobrien 1 hour ago | parent

“Junior” is the wrong distinction to make. I’ve recently worked with senior engineers who are terrible at wielding agents, and recent grad engineers who multiple themselves 100x. The main way I look for software engineers now are:

- Deep curiosity and ability to absorb new information quickly - Evidence of ability to wield and coordinate agents to the max - Ability to clearly communicate ideas

You have these skills, you can conquer the software world.

iLoveOncall 1 hour ago | parent

> I’ve recently worked with senior engineers who are terrible at wielding agents, and recent grad engineers who multiple themselves 100x

Wow, so you worked with recent grads who are producing 100x the slop? No wonder Anthropic doesn't hire junior engineers.

thatsabadlook 1 hour ago | parent

Lol exactly what I thought when I read it.

"People with no taste or experience mass generating code by copying tickets into Claude and pressing accept is the best!" Ohhhhkie dokie broskie

discreteevent 27 minutes ago | parent

Where I work we make real hardware and software that are used by real people doing real jobs every day. We use AI but in that environment someone who made Jackobriens comment would be seen as an idiot, someone who doesn't have a clue how to build software with real users that has to work with few bugs and be maintainable.

But there are so many people who make statements like his that maybe we should assume that some of them are not idiots or bots. If he's not an idiot it means that he's working in an environment where that kind of statement is paying off. So it could be, for example, that he doesn't really have profitable customers. His main 'customers' are investors who are clueless, or who know that they are clueless but don't care because they are going to move it on to a greater fool anyway. Or that because there aren't any customers, the only thing they can measure is 'productivity' in terms of 'number of unused, unprofitable and unsustainable features'

thatsabadlook 1 hour ago | parent

Well anthropic says you are wrong and wants juniors to disappear into another trade. This absolutely wouldn't be a coordinated effort to deskill Americans and force companies to helplessly accept whatever LLM code is generated without human review. Most certainly not. They wouldn't target regulated industries that require certain work praxis like biotechnology and lobby heavily with the military and government to change laws around this. Definitely not!

armanckeser 1 hour ago | parent

What would Anthropic gain by wanting juniors to disappear into another trade? Obviously their goal is to turn a profit meaning they need to be more efficient and they seem to believe that will come from senior engineers. They have the supply for it, why hire juniors when seniors are dying to working in your shop

thatsabadlook 1 hour ago | parent

Uh complete market capture for an entire industry that costs billions of dollars a year. They have been claiming software engineer was solved for years now.

If everyone does it, no one monitors it anymore, and quality degrades the only way out is more tokens.

voidhorse 38 minutes ago | parent

Bingo. From day one what these companies have really been after is not "intelligence" but rather mass production and the concomitant quality expectation and behavioral shifts that go with it.

All they really need to do is convince enough people to adopt lower expectations and accept worse software products. At that point, mission accomplished. They've annihilated the source of value originally provided by people who actually know how to do things.

gatlin 1 hour ago | parent

More paying users. They want more paying users.

rapidaneurism 1 hour ago | parent

I suspect it will be more difficult to increase the price to above actual cost if there is capacity for alternatives.

TheOtherHobbes 34 minutes ago | parent

Is the goal obviously to turn a profit?

I mean real profit, not "adjusted profit."

jansport123 1 hour ago | parent

If LLM's are supposed to get smarter, wouldn't they be able to wield agents for you? Seems like a skill with a short shelf life. In my day to day work i just use claude and it seems to spin up agents as it sees fit so I'm not sure why people need to coordinate agents to the max? If there is one thing i've seen in software engineering over many years is that sometimes software engineers prefer using flashy stuff even though it doesn't have that much benefits but they evangelize this stuff like it does. "Oh you don't use micro services and X,Y,Z for your crud app?", "Oh you use VS code and not vi?" "Why don't you maintain a data platform for your small scale data that can fit in postgres" so on and so forth.

zahlman 36 minutes ago | parent

Valid overall, but text editors like vi (or emacs or whatever else you prefer in the category) really do have major benefits and are definitely not being chosen to be "flashy". Skilled users choose one that resonates with them, and practice using it specifically. Traditional mouse-oriented editors just don't deliver that UX. It's not at all like choosing a bloated or over-engineered project architecture.

maccard 1 hour ago | parent

I’ve hired quite a bit over the last 10 years. Curiosity is the absolute number one thing I look for, whether for a fresh grad or a principal/staff+

The difference between a junior and a senior is still very real. With agents, knowing what to ask them to do (or not do) is bordering on more important than it ever was. A curious junior might still go down rabbit holes for things that a person who had done this before. That’s what makes them a junior. Not everything we _can_ do we _should_ do

xyzsparetimexyz 1 hour ago | parent

I feel like knowing when to say no or call an agents bluff is another useful skill

regexorcist 1 hour ago | parent

Loathe this company and everything they put out.

MichaelRo 1 hour ago | parent

Glad I'm not alone.

rimbo789 1 hour ago | parent

The only change in employment at Anthropic I’m interested in hearing about is their leaders going to jail

iLoveOncall 1 hour ago | parent

As if Anthropic was a model of successful company...

They are nowhere near profitable, have terribly bad products riddled with bugs (9,000+ open reports on Claude Code), and have no moat. Why would anyone listen to how they work internally?

eembees 1 hour ago | parent

Is it just me that wonders if everyone having "an army of Claudes" is an unsustainable token burn for anyone not affiliated with a Frontier Lab?

Traubenfuchs 1 hour ago | parent

Not if firing / not hiring a software engineer is worth 100-300 thousand dollar in tokens.

jansport123 1 hour ago | parent

yea but you have much more leverage over humans than you do over some company who spends it's time trying to see how it can squeeze it's customers.

Imustaskforhelp 39 minutes ago | parent

For what it’s worth though, if your project can work on open source models or other models in general then you have the ability to vote with your feet and you still have leverage.

pyrale 1 hour ago | parent

The issue with this kind of report is that you inevitably end up thinking "They would say that, would they".

There simply is no way to separate what’s reporting and what’s advertising.

thatsabadlook 1 hour ago | parent

It is all entirely advertising. Anything they say. Of course they want all companies to require their engineers to not think anymore and just press accept on their software. It's how they make money. Most c suite is absolutely deluded enough to believe them too.

vrganj 1 hour ago | parent

Not just deluded. Ideologically committed.

They are offering a cure to the defining contradiction of capitalism: The tension between capital wanting maximal self-reproduction and labor wanting a fair wage and a good life.

Anthropics pitch is to finally redeem capitalism by getting rid of those annoying workers and their annoying demands - that is why C-Suites are so excited about it, that is why its talked about in messianic language.

sedan_baklazhan 1 hour ago | parent

They are offering something that will destroy capitalism.

vrganj 1 hour ago | parent

Indeed. And cement its end-stage, techno-feudalism, where capitalists are elevated to lords and labor is demoted to serfs dependent on handouts.

Unless we somehow manage public control of AI, in which case we could hope for a Star Trek style technological utopia.

Rosa Luxemburgs word's have never rung truer - Socialism or Barbarism!

sedan_baklazhan 1 hour ago | parent

It is even worse than feudalism. Their “utopia” doesn’t need an economy nor does it need a population. Feudalism indeed relied on its population and on its primitive economy.

oblio 17 minutes ago | parent

I think Thiel (could have been another billionaire) twitched when asked by a reporter if he will be sad if AI overtakes humanity and humanity disappears. And not the good kind of twitch, more like "it's fine if it happens if I'm uploaded to the matrix by then" kind of twitch.

thatsabadlook 1 hour ago | parent

Hard agree. Why else are they writing manifestos and talking about the antichrist...

To the poster below who thinks anthropic is in this to destroy capitalism(lmao rofl), I guess maybe if you are interested in fuedal societies run by people who currently bomb schools, have chatbots and finely tuned recommendation engines designed to make children commit suicide but only after extracting as much capital as possible beforehand, try to sway elections in foreign countries, theottle the Internet so dictators can win wars, etc. Yea sure man they are all definitely interested in making the world better for everyone by also automating one of the few middle class jobs available in a country which has no manufacturing to fall back on. Super normal timeline.

SpicyLemonZest 1 hour ago | parent

It does provide a useful ceiling, at least. If even Anthropic is seeing only a 2-4x revenue multiplier from AI adoption, I’m intensely skeptical of the people who run around saying they produce 10x or 100x more valuable output because they’re really good at building a software factory or whatever.

sbarre 1 hour ago | parent

I mean, your productivity gains are relative to your starting point in some way.

If you are already an advanced company filled with skilled people, you may not see the gains that a mid-tier company filled with mediocre seat warmers would see when their "best and brightest" start adopting AI to replace said seat warmers.

randysalami 11 minutes ago | parent

The latter is something I’m dealing with and it’s given me some existential angst. My company’s monolith is millions LoC and hacked together. With proper engineering strategies, it could be closer to 100k. Without proper AI tooling, my verdict was let it be. When you have so many developers, PMs, stakeholders who tie their value to the pile of slop and making “engineering” decisions with it, it becomes very unpopular to suggest any refactoring - especially when that refactoring relies on principles that require an understanding of software engineering.

An example: the UI applications suffer from massive amounts of repetitive code. People on hacker news will probably instantly jump to some kind of componentization strategy. More wise individuals probably understand you need to draw a winning strategy before that’s possible. Identify common workflows, from that, identify common components, figure out a parameterization and so on. The footguns are the slop having unintended consequences which fixing might actually cause production bugs by being “features”.

Hypothetical now: a current alternative solution which may exist is two simple detail views (of which there may be 30+ in the application) are 1000+ LoC template files, hand-coded, copy-paste, with all the errors you could imagine. You can get a lot of work from that so people are/could be content just fixing slop with slop and calling it engineering while piling on more features. Maybe it works but it doesn’t allow for much engineering room.

With AI tooling, popular support becomes less necessary - correctness matters more. Instead of galvanizing people to realize this is wrong (and it’s not just a want thing, with offshoring and the general difficulty of software engineering, many people don’t understand these concepts. They are great people but struggle understanding for loops intuitively; I don’t know what to say). Now I can provide my strategy to the tooling and do the decomposition and componentization myself. On top of this, my strategy can be more intelligent and robust because I’m not doing it by hand like using the API layer as a source of truth to give my agents more context on what the UI was trying to do. The code itself is confused so part of the work is learning the intent behind each module and also capturing bugs that are “features” to prevent regressions. Basically, a clean room rewrite (but we have access to the source code so I know that’s not the exact correct term).

The engineering moat is still there. If I say, “Claude make my UI codebase smaller” it will burn tokens and fail. One day it will succeed but right now it will fail. Likewise if I say “Claude suggest ways to make my codebase smaller”, it may suggest my strategy but it may not capture all the critical wrinkles. LLMs are not good at simplifying so to simplify (which is always a good goal in software engineering as long as the abstractions still hold), requires human strategies when complexity is high enough. Especially in my case where the behavior of the code is almost more emergent rather than engineered.

Then carrying on, I started to devise a system for not only rewriting the UI but the rest of the application (API and DB layer) as well as the corporate processes around the application. This may sound rude but these corporate processes are disempowering and are wasteful. The trick is inversion. First build a conceptual interface around the layer. The model will understand the purpose without understanding or rewriting the internals. This saves context and allows it to do more powerful reasoning by having perspective instead of being in a vacuum. Then when you have bandwidth, use that interface along with all the context you developed working on other modules, to take control. An example, you have a team which is responsible for building and deploying. To build and deploy, you may need to fill out forms, contact layers of people, all to achieve the end of goal of “building and deploying”. Through inversion, you communicate with an agent endpoint that handles communications to that team. Escalating, writing forms, and doing water is needed to get the code built and deployed. For all intents and purposes, you are now in control of that process. What used to be “I want my code built and deployed to QA” -> “message A” -> “message B” -> “write form A” -> “monitor for responses” -> “build triggered” becomes “I want my code built and deployed” -> “activate agent process” -> “build triggered”. This is an application of inversion in a nutshell. AI allows to apply engineering principles not only to our code but corporate processes where applicable.

So in this case, there could be 100+ individuals supporting this application and process. The one or two or three engineers that use to own the development process (more or less) were drowned out yet still responsible for the overall process and integrity of the software. It was an impossible task but now it seems more possible. The existential angst part comes from the all processes that were sprung up to support a reality where this all wasn’t possible.

Last, I definitely do not think the solution is one hundred engineers. If you know the show “Breaking Bad”, I actually find the reality of software engineering to be more like this now. The difference between 60, 90, 95, and even 98 percent purity is staggering. And the chemist who takes the input (money and tokens) and produces the highest quality output (codebase and processes), dominates. Just as in Breaking Bad when Walter White inherently has power, despite all other chemists, because his process had the highest purity output. It’s just business sense and adding more chemists does not increase purity. Output quantity is no longer gated by number of bodies so that argument goes out the window. Mentorship will be key (as in Breaking Bad) and large teams of all-high-quality producers should be put together into super high-thoroughput teams. But for regular operations, prioritize the highest quality output where the input is guided by the highest quality producer because adding more cooks will seriously degrade the output, at an exponential rate.

squidmaster 1 hour ago | parent

It's easy for AI to make somebody 100x more productive if they were insanely unproductive in the first place. In the workplace this is unlikely, but in hobby spaces I believe it. Lots of hobbyists using AI to program micros/etc that, in the past, would have been beyond their capabilities without extensive study first.

Consider for instance the bicycle youtuber Berm Peak, who's been using AI to reverse engineer and hack shitty ebikes. This kind of work is outside his expertise, so the relative lift he gets is massive.

JDups 48 minutes ago | parent

I think a lot of "unproductive" people who use AI to "100x their output" in things they're not good at delude themselves into thinking they're being productive. You see people post vibe coded "projects" on places like linkedin where no one will ever use or look at it, and it doesn't even serve as a learning project. Or people who used to hate writing now posting complete slop blog posts 3 times a week which no one will ever read.

voidhorse 41 minutes ago | parent

Exactly. Generative AI, so far, has clearly lead to increases in activity. I still have yet to see more than a handful of projects in which it has actually led to productivity and that's usually because the pilot still spent significant time on ensuring quality was high and that the outcomes actually align with what a business needs. In these cases, the boost is not 100x, it's a much more modest 2x-3x at most.

bunderbunder 9 minutes ago | parent

I think the root of the problem might be that, after two decades of the corporate version of scrum with its absurd obsession with story point velocity, we now have an entire generation of programmers and managers who have had the ability to distinguish between activity and productivity conditioned out of them.

squidmaster 38 minutes ago | parent

If it gets the job done, that's what matters. Linkedin shitters were never going to do anything interesting in the first place, look at what actual hobbyists are making instead. People complained about Berm Peak using an LLM to code up a new user interface and control software for an ebike, but it worked so the complainers can be ignored.

bunderbunder 13 minutes ago | parent

E-bikes are cool I guess, but what most everyday folks are going to notice first is something like how my health insurance company just launched a vibecoded rewrite of the patient portal and now I have to wait on hold to find out anything because the claims history and EOB pages regularly show incorrect information or simply fail to even render.

squidmaster 2 minutes ago | parent

No argument there, but it doesn't change the fact that some people, properly motivated, with the right backgrounds and right tasks, do get plenty of lift with these tools.

Note that I specifically mentioned that I'm skeptical of claims of insane lift in workplace contexts.

ozgrakkurt 42 minutes ago | parent

There is effectively no value in statements like these.

There is no measurement. Think about how much of a difference empirical science made in such a short amount of time. Or think about how it is impossible to optimize software without measurement etc.

Also there is the AI companies’ atrocious reliability even if you trust the measurements

siva7 12 minutes ago | parent

You're missing the obvious. Time. There are highly talented developers who have the technical ability but had no time in the past to do these things because of real life obligations besides their job. Many are producing 10x more valuable output now. Also you're missing that Anthropic as a leading frontier lab isn't a good comparison for almost any metric for any other company in the world. It defies any principles companies usually have like unlimited talent supply.

simianwords 26 minutes ago | parent

Yeah it’s all hype marketing before the bubble pops

hypfer 1 hour ago | parent

One should keep in mind that whatever anthropic discovers there is a discovery made by a company with an infinite cash and hype faucet.

So while some stuff may transfer over as a general thing, a lot will probably not.

Still interesting, of course, but to be consumed with a mountain of salt.

dist-epoch 36 minutes ago | parent

> by a company with an infinite cash and hype faucet

I think you left a tiny bit out: the smartest model in the world

probably irrelevant detail

mrmarket 1 hour ago | parent

am i the only one who read this and thought 'no shit.' obviously agent hours outnumber human hours? most people operate multiple agents and function as AI nannies now. big deal.

also 'lines of code' or any other output based metric in the age of infinite slop is not a flex/indicator of usefulness or value.

and yes, everyone spends all their time reading Claude output. that doesn't mean better work is getting done, or progress is being made. i've been reviewing and fixing claude slop at work for at least a year. if anything companies/products are getting more homogonized and bloated. thanks anthropic, you are going to save the world

sreekanth850 1 hour ago | parent

how we will get next generation seniors, if no body hire juniors and freshers?

fwlr 48 minutes ago | parent

The plan is to make the AI a little better so that it can do to the seniors what it did to the juniors.

gb2d_hn 1 hour ago | parent

This just can't be sustainable. Ever increasing agent activity can only move to the point where it's literally impossible for humans to have a collective awareness of how the systems that support our lives actually work. How does anyone think this is going to end well? If as humans we loose control of vital systems, when they stop working one day (and they so easily could unless the agents are perfect and 100pct aligned with the general good of humanity (how do we even define that)) we could find ourselves without the ability to run healthcare systems and power grids, that have evolved so much such complexity that no human can intervene to fix them. I do believe that you can create feed back loops where probabilistic agents can be used to create deterministic checks and balances, and solve real problems for good. But it's a wild west at the moment and that is not what's happening in so many companies, and the solutions are not yet on the horizon. Even if the 'agents can handle it' ... where does that leave us? Unable to run our societies without puting everything through frontier LLMs? I just finished a very short story by Ted Chiang - 'The evolution of Human science' it starts at the point where it's 25 years since humans contributed a scientific paper because 'meta humans' now handle all research, and communicate digitally such that humans can only get a low fidelity report of what the agents actually know, and the endeavour to understand has become like a best effort archeological like hobby for interested humans. The story assumes that the 'meta humans' will always act in humans best interests. I believe it's from 2002, it's incredibly precient (The stories of your life and others is the collection the story is in. Many of them are very relevant to modern AI actually).

mattmaroon 1 hour ago | parent

The agents only have to be better than we are and we’re not very good. Same argument as self-driving.

Don’t fear change.

sedan_baklazhan 1 hour ago | parent

Imagine a country where no one can drive, and all transportation relies on a few AI monopolies.

If you don’t pay them, you can walk by feet. If they ban you, you can walk by feet. If their infrastructure is damaged, no one and nothing will be able to move.

mister_mort 57 minutes ago | parent

I'm reminded of the visual novel "Root Double -Before Crime * After Days-" where one guy in town having a manual petrol-powered car instead of using robotaxis is a significant plot point.

ndsipa_pomu 27 minutes ago | parent

Battlestar Galactica also relies on a pre-computerised starship as being the only hope for humanity.

nswizzle31 49 minutes ago | parent

You’re more than welcome to keep writing code by hand. It’s not illegal… wouldn’t recommend it though.

Good point about infra, but that’s already the case with Cloudflare, GitHub, aws, etc

sedan_baklazhan 46 minutes ago | parent

You're more than welcome to wake up in a country that is 100% dependent (in all spheres of life and economy!) on a few monopolies. I'm not sure that thing will be a country anymore.

BTW, when (not if, but when) a war happens, they will become very nice targets to render this exact country completely disabled.

horsawlarway 32 minutes ago | parent

Your last point is the one that I find most compelling.

Humans are autonomous, distributed, and adaptable. In a package that weighs ~150 lbs, with very low energy requirements.

You literally cannot wipe them out without a sustained and incredibly expensive ground campaign, and even then it's not likely.

AI in a data center on the other hand... So easily disabled.

sedan_baklazhan 27 minutes ago | parent

I can easily imagine, say, Russia destroying a few datacenters not with nuclear missiles, but with some relatively trivial local ground-based FPV attack or whatever.

And voila. No cargo moved, no code changes or fixes, no medical diagnosis made,etc. A whole country is disabled.

zeryx 29 minutes ago | parent

There was a book I read maybe 10-15 years ago about a world where governments Essentially dissolved and in place there was nothing but mega corp monopoloys - Jennifer Government was the name ( if you ever played the MUD Nation States yk)

I thought that was an interesting idea, but not something that could ever happen..

nswizzle31 9 minutes ago | parent

There are already tons of countries in Europe and Asia that are dependent on a few monopolies. People still live their lives just fine.

Re: war.. that’s why US spends orders of magnitude more on military than anyone else. If any infra is hit on US soil then im heading to the bunker because most of the world will have already been reduced to dust.

zeryx 27 minutes ago | parent

Get your own compute, require and force openweights and right to compute. Make sure NV and AMD keep making prosumer hardware that can run Kimi k3

nasretdinov 47 minutes ago | parent

Unless something dramatic changes and it'll become cheap to "constantly re-educate" the models to learn the new fundamental facts about the system (ideally with a small lag of maybe a few days like with humans) I see no reason to think that LLMs can have a profound understanding of how business systems work of a remotely comparable quality to humans. Just adding the context about the system already reduces it's capacity significantly according to what I can tell. Not having large context helps somewhat at a cost of having to explain lots of task-relevant things to LLM over and over again...

10xDev 27 minutes ago | parent

Online / continual learning will solve this problem. Test time training has already proven to be effective.

anal_reactor 11 minutes ago | parent

> I see no reason to think that LLMs can have a profound understanding of how business systems work of a remotely comparable quality to humans

My manager was dragging me through useless projects that went nowhere despite multiple people telling him "it ain't gonna work" while shooting down proposals that later turned out to be "high priority tasks required directly by upper management". And he's a well-paid, educated employee with years of experience. Don't even get me started on delivery guys who cannot read a simple instruction like "do not ring the bell, leave the package on the doorstep". They just follow a 50-line script and that's all they can do.

Whenever you mention that AI won't reach human intelligence, remember that this is the benchmark. Not Alexander the Great, it's the millions of people throwing their life savings ($1000 each) into Labubus. Long time ago there was a series of articles in my country about the costs of wedding receptions skyrocketing and some people taking out loans to pay that, and someone made a meme "robots will never have human intelligence!" with reply "bro, you took out a loan to pay for a wedding, I don't want your human intelligence".

Denying this reality is pure cope.

andsoitis 35 minutes ago | parent

> The agents only have to be better than we are and we’re not very good. Same argument as self-driving.

Self-driving requires less holistic thinking than imagining, building, and evolving large scale systems. It requires abilities that LLMs do not have. It requires non-symbolic reasoning, intuition, etc. that are beyond LLMs.

10xDev 33 minutes ago | parent

Intuition is just system 1 thinking. Nothing that doesn't already exist.

andsoitis 23 minutes ago | parent

> Intuition is just system 1 thinking. Nothing that doesn't already exist.

Intuition exists outside the human brain?

10xDev 19 minutes ago | parent

I'm surprised this is even a question and the fact that you used human and not even mammal to phrase your question. Do you think intuition is a unique human trait?

andsoitis 3 minutes ago | parent

> Do you think intuition is a unique human trait?

No.

x______________ 17 minutes ago | parent

> The agents only have to be better than we are and we’re not very good. Same argument as self-driving.

> Don’t fear change.

Change is inevitable.

What I understood from the comment is that Op fears the boiling frog scenario. [0]

0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

10xDev 42 minutes ago | parent

> Ever increasing agent activity can only move to the point where it's literally impossible for humans to have a collective awareness of how the systems that support our lives actually work

That's the point, they are setting up the economy to be run by agents and they trust that it is possible. Step 1. Teach AI human knowledge (2022-2023). Step 2. Make AI agentic (2025). Step 3. Start autonomous research and create own corpus of knowledge (2026).

Step 3 will keep compounding (as we are witnessing) and most people will be left behind. I'm not against a revolution, I'm all for it.

RandomLensman 14 minutes ago | parent

AI is far from having all human knowledge - long way to go to run everything in the economy by (robotic) agents.

10xDev 11 minutes ago | parent

Pre-training already makes up a very small cost of the training now. Post-training makes up ~90% of the training cost as modern LLMs are trained using RLVR on synthetic data. People still think that a lot of it is coming from scraping wikipedia like it is 2023.

RandomLensman 2 minutes ago | parent

Not sure how that gets specialized off-line knowledge in certain manual tasks, for example.

torben-friis 18 minutes ago | parent

No one's at the wheel. It's fair (to a degree) for companies to push for short term gain, but the legislative counterbalance that is supposed to care for long term effects no longer exists.

It's not only AI. Betting is on the rise, adults and minors are being hooked by dopamine loops, social networks are causing well measured negative effects, children's educational scores are sinking worldwide, appliance manufacturers engage in surveillance...

It truly feels like the wild west.

9dev 1 hour ago | parent

Wow, that sounds like an AI hellscape! Constant pressure to use AI agents to be more productive. That pressure requires an amount of attention that wears you out so quickly just to stay competitive that you need to build bespoke tools to orchestrate your agentic workflows. But the amount of output from that is too much too, so you need to build meta-orchestrators to orchestrate your orchestrators.

And all of this is then somehow classified as responsible development of AI, by people who claim AI could eradicate humanity, and that RSI will be our downfall. How exactly is outsourcing your work on agents to agents not RSI at this point? Why are these people still allowed to operate again?

somewhereoutth 1 hour ago | parent

> A financial manager built a purchase request review agent

> An executive assistant, who built a personal assistant agent for scheduling and email triage

Really? We should build our own agents for everything? Sounds a bit token-spendy.

Also, as far as I can make out, the paper was not written by AI (nor even with AI assistance?). You'd think they'd make a song and dance about it if it was. Maybe AI can't do this sort of thing yet (or ever).

rameshrathiakg 1 hour ago | parent

Recently claude on vscode got blanked for whole day, Fixed after the update on next day

thatsabadlook 1 hour ago | parent

Because software engineering is solved. These aren't bugs according to boris. Implemented as designed.

mrleinad 53 minutes ago | parent

VSCode is being vibe coded and it's noticeable, they don't have proper QA before release.

tinyhouse 1 hour ago | parent

I'm surprised this is not much more talked about these days. The hiring bar is going to increase so much in the next few years (already happening), and together with more layoffs driven by big tech, things aren't looking good.

Anyhropic is not a good example for anything. Their scale and growth is way beyond what like 99% of companies experiece. Their optimization formula is different.

ytxm 1 hour ago | parent

They're celebrating elimination of junior work while offering no explanation for how future senior staff are trained, and measuring output by code volume. Lol who wrote this, can't wait to see how this plays out, if you asked even a junior they could have told you that's a terrible idea.

orourke 1 hour ago | parent

Because they think Claude will eventually replace all engineers.

SilverSlash 57 minutes ago | parent

It really is the most misanthropic company, isn't it? But strategically is all this fearmongering about SWEs becoming obsolete even the right move for Anthropic?

Say that it is borderline true (it's not, but let's pretend). Then companies can lay off 90 devs for every 100, and buy the remaining 10 devs Claude subscriptions. Isn't it better if they keep all 100 and buy everyone a Claude sub?

So shouldn't Anthropic actually be pushing the narrative that Claude doesn't replace devs but actually makes them vastly better at their jobs and so every company, big and small, should buy every dev the highest tier Claude enterprise subscription?

cmiles8 56 minutes ago | parent

Said by a company that’s increasingly desperate to convince you that there’s serious business value in using their product. The challenge is those without that conflict of interests don’t seem to agree there’s a lot of ROI.

In other news, Turkey farmers encourage you to buy more turkey for Thanksgiving.

andsoitis 55 minutes ago | parent

Authors of this article: Nathan Wilmers, Regina Catipon, Maxim Massenkoff, Peter McCrory

I'm too lazy to bother looking up each of their credentials. Are any of them software engineers? Do they know anything about creating, maintaining, and evolving software?

I do know that Anthropic's CEO isn't a software engineer, so it would be hard for him to evaluate their claims with any deep insight from experience.

andsoitis 34 minutes ago | parent

OK, I bothered looking them up. They are all economists it seems. Go figure.

simianwords 25 minutes ago | parent

Lazy argument on multiple fronts. For starters Dario was a software engineer

andsoitis 21 minutes ago | parent

> Lazy argument on multiple fronts. For starters Dario was a software engineer

According to his LinkedIn profile, the software development he did was for less than 3 years in a very narrow field. I would call that very limited.

Coupled with the incentives driving him, his judgment would be heavily clouded.

andsoitis 50 minutes ago | parent

Who cares how employment is changing at your startup? You're like an influencer on TikTok marching shit from your bedroom, pretending to have a fabulous and glamorous life. Minewhile, you are insecure, incompetent in the craft of software engineering, but play the social media influencer game because you have zero substance.

voidhorse 46 minutes ago | parent

> As AI agents diffused through the company, Anthropic began producing more code per person

Anyone who has been in software for a while should hear alarm bells going off when they read this. Every line of code is a liability, not a trophy. This is what happens when people who don't know and don't care to learn about the existing body of knowledge in a discipline "reinvent" it.

Give it another year or two and Anthropic will be writing all about how they lowered LOC and got agents to be more conservative about generating new code and introduced a "verification gate" for every new line produced.

mrleinad 40 minutes ago | parent

That verification gate will be automated as well.

siva7 42 minutes ago | parent

> Anthropic has been hiring for a smaller share of junior technical positions.

I don't wanna be the guy calling out the lie or slop but when did Anthropic hire in the last two years for junior roles? OAI and Anthropic could literally hire seamlessly the best of the best worldwide for every job they advertise without having the need to think about the poor juniors.

RandomLensman 33 minutes ago | parent

I would love to see productivity effects in revenues/profits and risk (how much more revenue/profit per head, for example) - in the end commits etc. aren't quite enough.

blini-kot 32 minutes ago | parent

I hope they understand that those "essays" are long past due date of being remotely interesting.

it was interesting in the beginning when there was technical substance, but now its just techno-bros vision of deep thoughts

simianwords 22 minutes ago | parent

Most comments are lazy.

“Anthropic bad because automation of labour”

“Claude bad because it hallucinated that one time”

“This is a marketing post to hype up ipo numbers”

vinitjain24 17 minutes ago | parent

it just says same things everyone knows entry level job gone , ai does everything , agentic infra nothing new to take from here