79 points ck2 1 hour ago 133 comments
ck2 1 hour ago | parent
even if you do not drive, it affects every delivery
imagine this pattern through 2029
800 more days, even just a penny increase per day
we're out of $4 Million dollar tomahawks and the iranians have endless supply of $50K drones
strategic oil reserve is about to experience permanent catastrophic damage from being drained too low
sleepyguy 1 hour ago | parent
Apparently salt domes have a life span, you pump water in to remove oil. The water wears at the domes and removes more salt creating a larger cavern. It's not that we pumped out so much oil lately, it's because we were pumping out little bits over the last 5 decades constantly wearing at the domes. They were created at the time to only be used in a catastrophic situation, not when ever you want to control the price of oil......
Either way, you are correct in that their life has come to an end, we will require more expensive above ground storage going forward or we can electrify.
bell-cot 1 hour ago | parent
24 years ago, I recall diesel being $1.25/gallon, and hamburger meat at a little local grocer for $1/pound any time they had a sale.
Now, even going to Costco, their ground chuck is $6/pound.
Zigurd 1 hour ago | parent
aplummer 59 minutes ago | parent
bell-cot 30 minutes ago | parent
If you look at the timeline, and the demographics of voters who lost enthusiasm for Biden between 2020 and 2024, it looks like a whole lotta the Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck decided to vote their pocketbooks.
Vs. back in '72, when Biden was just getting elected to the Senate, Pres. Nixon was a noisy anti-inflation zealot. (Not saying Nixon was sane, nor legal...) Since Nixon was re-elected with >60% of the popular vote - in spite of negatives like the Vietnam War - I'd say that the Dem's failure to follow a so-obvious winning reelection strategy was exactly what handed Trump the opportunity to make the decisions which you so strongly dislike.
Synaesthesia 1 hour ago | parent
baggachipz 48 minutes ago | parent
krior 45 minutes ago | parent
markvdb 44 minutes ago | parent
Incompetence or malice? Both is also possible...
MuffinFlavored 1 hour ago | parent
blitzar 1 hour ago | parent
Inflation is high ... but not that high
bluGill 39 minutes ago | parent
margalabargala 1 hour ago | parent
softwaredoug 1 hour ago | parent
Treasury has already tried to reassure markets and failed
Add to this other trade war nonsense...
iso1631 57 minutes ago | parent
This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US based oil producers. I'm sure that will trickle down any time now.
fpoling 48 minutes ago | parent
disgruntledphd2 47 minutes ago | parent
Honestly, I think you're giving far too much credit to the current US government.
gizajob 38 minutes ago | parent
toomuchtodo 36 minutes ago | parent
(if one is some combination of unsophisticated, irrational, and vain, and in a position of power, you will eventually be exploited by someone more rational and sophisticated, imho)
gizajob 28 minutes ago | parent
toomuchtodo 26 minutes ago | parent
wombat-man 19 minutes ago | parent
toomuchtodo 17 minutes ago | parent
Very similar to Putin (73 years old, as of this comment) making his move against Ukraine when he did. Light cone of potential outcomes and path dependency.
“Old men pulling triggers out of ideology before they’re too weak to.” I argue that, in many ways, extended life expectancy has been a curse in this context. It has allowed unscrupulous people positions of power where great harm is incurred with limited repercussions (if any!), positions of power they would not be in if they had aged out sooner. You can only wait to vote them out, or wait for them to die if you cannot vote them out. Very unfortunate.
mikeyouse 10 minutes ago | parent
nradov 26 minutes ago | parent
gruez 46 minutes ago | parent
That's giving the Trump administration too much credit. Before the war there were pieces about how oil companies were doing worse under Trump than under Biden[1]. Of course, you could argue that the Iran war is Trump finally responding to oil companies, but given that it only started more than a year after he took power, it really makes you wonder whether Trump is bumbling along, or playing some 5d chess with the global oil market. On the flip side there's plenty of evidence that he doesn't want high oil prices, for instance lifting sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil.
[1] https://www.economist.com/business/2025/02/06/donald-trump-l...
gizajob 36 minutes ago | parent
voakbasda 13 minutes ago | parent
nisegami 26 minutes ago | parent
softwaredoug 26 minutes ago | parent
I am unsure its by design or just idiocy. (Probably a mix of both).
alangibson 23 minutes ago | parent
29348915 1 hour ago | parent
tejohnso 59 minutes ago | parent
He also said he "will end the endless wars" and stressed there were "no new wars" under his first presidency in the 2024 campaing.
And on election night he said "I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars."
A lying politician is nothing new but he's doing it more bigly than most.
magicalhippo 6 minutes ago | parent
I think saying he's lying is too generous. It implies intent. I think he's just not capable of separating truth from fiction anymore.
sleepyguy 1 hour ago | parent
There is nothing stopping US refineries from producing more diesel, you can use both sweet and sour, this is speculators squeezing the markets.
What a great time it should be to electrify heavy transportation. If they can do it in mining and construction, why can't transportation...
citrin_ru 58 minutes ago | parent
Aren't they already producing as much as they can? Which is not sufficient given that globally a significant fraction of refining capacity is offline.
leetrout 54 minutes ago | parent
Because supply side. Can't have our oil barons losing out.
tyingq 48 minutes ago | parent
Or are you saying the Ukraine drone strikes have not affected the output at a scale where it matters globally?
bluGill 35 minutes ago | parent
Ukraine strikes to impact the world price. However most of the impact is in Russia, elsewhere the effect is less. Iran is larger effect because the middle east as a more significant share of global oil. (both have an effect, but Iran is larger)
stefan_ 27 minutes ago | parent
fpoling 26 minutes ago | parent
But then it also makes Chinese EV including trucks extremely attractive replacement. So China making a profit as well.
t1234s 1 hour ago | parent
Is there any reason why Diesel costs more? I was always under the impression that it was a less-refined fuel therefore cheaper.
rob74 1 hour ago | parent
KellyCriterion 56 minutes ago | parent
EDIT: meaning "less taxes"
MrRadar 1 hour ago | parent
Scoundreller 58 minutes ago | parent
xingped 59 minutes ago | parent
pc86 56 minutes ago | parent
bluGill 49 minutes ago | parent
In the US diesel taxes are often different from gasoline, but polluting is generally not a factor.
bob1029 58 minutes ago | parent
Jet fuel and diesel fuel come from similar parts of the barrel. Refineries can largely choose what kind of fuel they produce for a given unit of input. One barrel doesn't always split into the same fractions. There is configuration involved.
parrellel 57 minutes ago | parent
This started, I believe when fracking became a major thing (the late 2000s), because shale oils tends to have less heavy hydrocarbons then the old wells.
Scoundreller 54 minutes ago | parent
And the ethanol makes the fuel less valuable (energy reduction per litre) moreso than biodiesel.
bluGill 52 minutes ago | parent
While diesel is less refined, the difference isn't much. These days both are heavily refined products, and the cost to refine gasoline isn't very much per gallon.
The real answer: supply/demand is the key factor in the price you pay. Cost to create/build a product generally sets a floor on the price you pay: a business that isn't making money will stop making the product (loss leaders exist, but not a factor here).
teiferer 43 minutes ago | parent
That's the problem with hindsight theories, especially if only using a limit horizon into the past.
bluGill 19 minutes ago | parent
boilerupnc 41 minutes ago | parent
[0] https://www.npr.org/2022/08/31/1120422634/breaking-down-the-...
xutopia 27 minutes ago | parent
VikingCoder 1 hour ago | parent
A_D_E_P_T 57 minutes ago | parent
Losing at war is universally bad. And long stalemated forever wars can be just as bad for both sides.
rob74 54 minutes ago | parent
bluGill 46 minutes ago | parent
That said, the patriot is a lot cheaper replace than the things it was defending so it was a good investment even if expensive.
codedokode 36 minutes ago | parent
bluGill 13 minutes ago | parent
We know Ukraine is working on a not a patriot interceptor that can do ballistic missiles, but so far there is no word on progress. (this seems to be intentional - they are not saying why but experts have some good guesses)
creaturemachine 51 minutes ago | parent
Gracana 47 minutes ago | parent
Rule of Acquisition number 35: Peace is good for business.
throw0101d 23 minutes ago | parent
Really wish I had a better memory so I could memorize these as a lot of them would be really fun as everyday quips.
bluGill 12 minutes ago | parent
WarmWash 1 hour ago | parent
thendrill 54 minutes ago | parent
toomuchtodo 53 minutes ago | parent
China has destroyed oil import demand the equivalent of annual UK oil imports in the last six months, for example. Push those oil and diesel prices up, hold them up as long as possible. Several countries have banned internal combustion vehicle imports to push the needle on the EV trajectory (Ethiopia, Laos) because they are fossil fuel poor. Global EV sales have spiked, and already exceed 25% of total annual vehicles sales (~90M units/year) [4] [5]. We're just discussing how long until we reach tipping points that further accelerate the transition.
How much fossil supply chain infra must be impaired to further move the needle? Hard to say, excited to find out. Electrify or get wrecked. To not to is a choice.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49479229 (citations)
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49647405 (citations)
[3] Gas car sales fell 40% in August in China [Charts] - https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/08/gas-car-sales-fell-40-in... - September 8th, 2026
[4] Global sales of combustion engine cars peaked in 2017 - https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/global-sales-of-com... - May 21st, 2026
[5] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales
(as of this comment, China has enough EV manufacturing capacity to satisfy global demand; they are currently export constrained and cannot ship fast enough to meet demand)
velcrovan 30 minutes ago | parent
throw0101d 18 minutes ago | parent
By draining aquifers, for one:
* https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8
* https://unu.edu/inweh/news/world-enters-era-of-global-water-...
Certain desalination exists, but can get expensive and energy-intensive (and they it may be necessary to transport the fresh water great distances).
velcrovan 16 minutes ago | parent
OptionX 53 minutes ago | parent
bix6 48 minutes ago | parent
sdcfgy 48 minutes ago | parent
privong 31 minutes ago | parent
ItsBob 17 minutes ago | parent
I don't like it either but you have to pick your battles these days.
AshleyGrant 46 minutes ago | parent
bix6 45 minutes ago | parent
ItsBob 24 minutes ago | parent
I used to be dead-set-against electric cars but I just bought one and am loving it. The maths is staggering. It's secondhand though as I don't believe new ones are worth it.
bluGill 1 minute ago | parent
Now if OP's car is worn out and needs replacing anyway the economics are different.
bluGill 22 minutes ago | parent
I did find a few eGolfs and leafs for $5k-8k, but in my experience if a car is that cheap there is a reason for that, so I assume they are unacceptable. There is a chance OP has a diesel truck because he needs a truck which in turn means they wouldn't work even new (the F150 lightning perhaps would)
cosmic_cheese 43 minutes ago | parent
The main caveat is that available models are heavily weighted towards “compact” (RAV4 sized) SUVs and larger. There aren’t many little Prius/Fit/Soul type town car models around which is a bit paradoxical with that being the use case that EVs have been well suited to for the longest time.
bix6 42 minutes ago | parent
sixothree 17 minutes ago | parent
W0lfEagle 31 minutes ago | parent
ItsBob 27 minutes ago | parent
It's lost 60% of its value, has only done 57k miles and has a battery state of health of 97.4%. I paid £22k.
I still maintain that new cars, especially new electric cars, are not worth the money but secondhand ones are a bargain now... relatively speaking.
toomuchtodo 22 minutes ago | parent
If one can make due with an ebike instead of an EV, certainly, that is of course an option that should be considered.
The world’s 280 million electric bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars - https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-280-million-electric-... - November 16th, 2026
bluGill 5 minutes ago | parent
If you drive a car then EVs should be your first choice, and they should be worth a premium over other types. However in the end used car buyers are limited to what is for sale now.
ItsBob 19 minutes ago | parent
We have a staggering number of people that live in apartments so charging is out of the question except at public charging points and the cheapest I've seen is £0.40/kWh. Most of the fast chargers are £0.92/kWh.
When I get my home charger fitted I'll be paying 6.9p/kWh between midnight and 6am but I have a driveway.
Not everyone can give up ICE cars. The logistics don't add up for many people plus the entire world runs on diesel - every truck, earth-mover, factory etc. relies on diesel in some fashion.
SauciestGNU 8 minutes ago | parent
Pivoting agriculture from feed grains supporting the livestock industry to crops that humans directly consume would also improve the fuel consumption picture, but people are reluctant to reduce or eliminate meats from their diets.
laimewhisps 59 minutes ago | parent
Varelion 51 minutes ago | parent
krior 46 minutes ago | parent
laimewhisps 16 minutes ago | parent
AmazingTurtle 58 minutes ago | parent
Hamuko 56 minutes ago | parent
kioleanu 54 minutes ago | parent
iso1631 53 minutes ago | parent
Diesel at the local garage I passed at lunchtime is £1.89 (57% more). The web [0] suggests that is more expensive than anywhere in europe other than France and Denmark for some reason.
So nowhere near "half as cheap". Throw in poor American average mileage and I suspect the price-per-mile is quite similar.
bluGill 43 minutes ago | parent
noselasd 42 minutes ago | parent
Scoundreller 51 minutes ago | parent
I think cost per kilometre/lightyear/rod is close
ethagnawl 58 minutes ago | parent
sockbot 56 minutes ago | parent
I am not interested in nominal new highs.
Merkur 52 minutes ago | parent
Still that makes very clear why Venezuela had to happen before Iran.
throw0101d 27 minutes ago | parent
As someone who drives a 2003 Golf TDI, I'm currently looking at CAD 2.40/L: EUR1.49/USD1.73 per L.
Varelion 52 minutes ago | parent
bluGill 42 minutes ago | parent
Varelion 32 minutes ago | parent
bluGill 17 minutes ago | parent
Which is why I'm no longer in the party... Where did the rest of us go?
mindslight 39 minutes ago | parent
gizajob 30 minutes ago | parent
randusername 35 minutes ago | parent
Instead of tracking cost increases of fuel, I try to conceptualize prices for all things in equivalent fuel or metered energy.
The fed can overlook energy and food in their "preferred metric of inflation", but that's 90% of what I care about as an individual. Very interesting to track your purchasing power in MWh
addaon 31 minutes ago | parent
ssijak 34 minutes ago | parent
throw0101d 32 minutes ago | parent
gib444 30 minutes ago | parent
ChrisArchitect 29 minutes ago | parent
time4tea 22 minutes ago | parent